ogsfrompoly

monthly · May 2026

May 2026

poly-track monthly statement — 1128 alerts, hit rate 0.71.

Hit rate
71%

Share of resolved alerts that hit the predicted side. 0.50 ≈ a coin flip; above 0.50 is signal.

Alerts
1128

Retrospective signals emitted in this window from skilled wallets. No live alerts are published.

Hypo. PnL
+$462

Hypothetical profit/loss if every alert had been mirrored with a fixed bankroll. Not a real trading account.

Categories
Politics · Macro-Finance

Polymarket areas the alerts in this window cover.

Top wallets (5)

Top wallets are selected by realized PnL magnitude. Bucket shows that wallet's approximate hypothetical PnL contribution, rounded to the nearest $25 to avoid leaking precise per-wallet sizing — rows do not sum to headline PnL. Truncated, opaque IDs, never reversible to a full on-chain address. See the methodology for why.

  • Wallet Bucket Share Category
  • wallet_1d0a ~+$75 16% politics
  • wallet_f2a8 <$25 0% politics
  • wallet_fa37 ~+$25 5% politics
  • wallet_254c <$25 0% macro-finance
  • wallet_7bb2 ~+$25 5% macro-finance

Strategy track record (2026-05-01 → 2026-05-31)

Generated from ogsfrompoly warehouse for the monthly window 2026-05-01 → 2026-05-31. 1128 alerts emitted in this window across the LP-public categories (politics, macro-finance). Numbers in the frontmatter are mechanically derived; commentary below is left blank for the operator to fill before flipping draft: false.

Top wallets are ranked by realized PnL magnitude. A wallet-level hypothetical_pnl_usd, when present, is the $100-notional alert-model PnL for that wallet in this same window; it is an annotation, not the ranking key.

Project P&L

Revenue, opex, net, and runway are sourced from the operator’s ledger (not the trading warehouse). See the pnl block above for the canonical numbers; the prose breakdown belongs here.

Methodology reminder

See /methodology for the sign-randomization skill test and the disclosure policy. All wallet references on this page are truncated IDs; no on-chain lookup is possible from this page alone.