monthly · June 2026
June 2026
ogsfrompoly monthly statement — 17903 alerts, hit rate 0.48.
- Hit rate
- 48%
- Alerts
- 17903
- Hypo. PnL
- +$4,224
- Categories
- Politics · Macro-Finance
Share of resolved alerts that hit the predicted side. 0.50 ≈ a coin flip; above 0.50 is signal.
Retrospective signals emitted in this window from skilled wallets. No live alerts are published.
Hypothetical profit/loss if every alert had been mirrored with a fixed bankroll. Not a real trading account.
Polymarket areas the alerts in this window cover.
Monthly P&L
Open-book project economics for this month — revenue, operating spend, net, and how many months of runway the current bankroll covers. "Covered" means revenue meets or exceeds opex, so runway is indefinite.
- Revenue
- $0
- Opex
- $0
- Net
- $0
- Runway
- covered
Top wallets (5)
Top wallets are selected by realized PnL magnitude. Bucket shows that wallet's approximate hypothetical PnL contribution, rounded to the nearest $25 to avoid leaking precise per-wallet sizing — rows do not sum to headline PnL. Share is that bucket as a fraction of headline PnL; it can exceed 100% when a single wallet carried the window while other alerts netted negative. Truncated, opaque IDs, never reversible to a full on-chain address. See the methodology for why.
- Wallet Bucket Share Category
- wallet_cff6 ~−$2,150 -51% politics
- wallet_a48c ~+$1,650 39% politics
- wallet_912c ~−$900 -21% politics
- wallet_c3c1 ~−$750 -18% politics
- wallet_1f7f ~−$675 -16% politics
Strategy track record (2026-06-01 → 2026-06-30)
Generated from the ogsfrompoly warehouse for the monthly window 2026-06-01 → 2026-06-30. 17903 alerts emitted in this window across the LP-public categories (politics, macro-finance). Numbers in the frontmatter are mechanically derived.
Resolution coverage. As of 2026-07-08, 1,653 of the 4,747 distinct markets flagged this month have settled (35%). The hit rate above reflects only markets that have settled so far and will firm up as the remaining markets resolve.
Top wallets. The table above lists the 5 wallets with the largest alert-model PnL swings this month, ranked by magnitude (so heavy losers surface alongside winners). Realized, on-chain-settled PnL is not yet available for this window — the fills backfill lags the alert stream — so each wallet’s hypothetical_pnl_usd, the $100-notional mirror-every-alert model that also drives the headline figure above, is the ranking key rather than an annotation. Wallet IDs are truncated to their last four hex characters; no on-chain lookup is possible from this page.
Project P&L
Revenue, opex, net, and runway are sourced from the operator’s ledger (not the trading warehouse); the pnl block above holds the canonical numbers. Revenue was $0 for June 2026 — no paid subscriptions, sponsorships, or other income are booked against this period. Operating expenses were also $0: no cash costs were booked to the ledger this month, so there are no line items to itemize. Net result is therefore $0. Runway is reported as not-applicable (null above) — with no recurring cash burn this month, there is no meaningful months-of-runway figure.
Methodology reminder
See /methodology for the sign-randomization skill test and the disclosure policy. All wallet references on this page are truncated IDs; no on-chain lookup is possible from this page alone.