weekly · Jul 1 – Jul 7, 2026
Week of 2026-07-01
ogsfrompoly weekly statement — 8361 alerts, hit rate 0.35.
- Hit rate
- 35%
- Alerts
- 8361
- Hypo. PnL
- +$2,698
- Categories
- Politics · Macro-Finance
Share of resolved alerts that hit the predicted side. 0.50 ≈ a coin flip; above 0.50 is signal.
Retrospective signals emitted in this window from skilled wallets. No live alerts are published.
Hypothetical profit/loss if every alert had been mirrored with a fixed bankroll. Not a real trading account.
Polymarket areas the alerts in this window cover.
Top wallets (5)
Top wallets are selected by realized PnL magnitude. Bucket shows that wallet's approximate hypothetical PnL contribution, rounded to the nearest $25 to avoid leaking precise per-wallet sizing — rows do not sum to headline PnL. Share is that bucket as a fraction of headline PnL; it can exceed 100% when a single wallet carried the window while other alerts netted negative. Truncated, opaque IDs, never reversible to a full on-chain address. See the methodology for why.
- Wallet Bucket Share Category
- wallet_1f8a ~+$425 16% macro-finance
- wallet_a458 ~+$425 16% politics
- wallet_7fcf ~+$400 15% politics
- wallet_a48c ~+$375 14% macro-finance
- wallet_ce9f ~+$325 12% politics
Strategy track record (2026-07-01 → 2026-07-07)
Generated from the ogsfrompoly warehouse for the weekly window 2026-07-01 → 2026-07-07. 8361 alerts emitted in this window across the LP-public categories (politics, macro-finance). Numbers in the frontmatter are mechanically derived.
Resolution coverage. As of 2026-07-08, 147 of the 2,504 distinct markets flagged this week have settled (6%). The hit rate above reflects only markets that have settled so far and will firm up as the remaining markets resolve.
Top wallets. The table above lists the 5 wallets with the largest alert-model PnL swings this week, ranked by magnitude (so heavy losers surface alongside winners). Realized, on-chain-settled PnL is not yet available for this window — the fills backfill lags the alert stream — so each wallet’s hypothetical_pnl_usd, the $100-notional mirror-every-alert model that also drives the headline figure above, is the ranking key rather than an annotation. Wallet IDs are truncated to their last four hex characters; no on-chain lookup is possible from this page.
Methodology reminder
See /methodology for the sign-randomization skill test and the disclosure policy. All wallet references on this page are truncated IDs; no on-chain lookup is possible from this page alone.