weekly · Jul 8 – Jul 14, 2026
Week of 2026-07-08
ogsfrompoly weekly statement — 6880 alerts, hit rate 0.47.
- Hit rate
- 47%
- Alerts
- 6880
- Hypo. PnL
- +$2,821
- Categories
- Politics · Macro-Finance
Share of resolved alerts that hit the predicted side. 0.50 ≈ a coin flip; above 0.50 is signal.
Retrospective signals emitted in this window from skilled wallets. No live alerts are published.
Hypothetical profit/loss if every alert had been mirrored with a fixed bankroll. Not a real trading account.
Polymarket areas the alerts in this window cover.
Top wallets (5)
Top wallets are selected by realized PnL magnitude. Bucket shows that wallet's approximate hypothetical PnL contribution, rounded to the nearest $25 to avoid leaking precise per-wallet sizing — rows do not sum to headline PnL. Share is that bucket as a fraction of headline PnL; it can exceed 100% when a single wallet carried the window while other alerts netted negative. Truncated, opaque IDs, never reversible to a full on-chain address. See the methodology for why.
- Wallet Bucket Share Category
- wallet_1f8a ~+$500 18% politics
- wallet_6c1f ~+$325 12% politics
- wallet_f905 ~−$275 -10% politics
- wallet_d5f9 ~+$225 8% politics
- wallet_554f ~−$225 -8% politics
Strategy track record (2026-07-08 → 2026-07-14)
Generated from ogsfrompoly warehouse for the weekly window 2026-07-08 → 2026-07-14. 6880 alerts emitted in this window across the LP-public categories (politics, macro-finance). Numbers in the frontmatter are mechanically derived.
Top wallets are ranked by realized PnL magnitude. A wallet-level hypothetical_pnl_usd, when present, is the $100-notional alert-model PnL for that wallet in this same window; it is an annotation, not the ranking key.
Methodology reminder
See /methodology for the sign-randomization skill test and the disclosure policy. All wallet references on this page are truncated IDs; no on-chain lookup is possible from this page alone.