monthly · July 2026
July 2026
ogsfrompoly monthly statement — 612 alerts, hit rate 0.51 (80 markets resolved in this period).
- Hit rate
- 51%
- Alerts
- 612
- Hypo. PnL
- +$850
- Categories
- Macro-Finance
Share of resolved alerts that hit the predicted side. 0.50 ≈ a coin flip; above 0.50 is signal. Measured over the 80 of 612 alerts that have resolved.
Retrospective signals emitted in this window from skilled wallets. No live alerts are published.
Hypothetical profit/loss if every alert had been mirrored with a fixed bankroll. Not a real trading account.
Polymarket areas the alerts in this window cover.
Monthly P&L
Open-book project economics for this month — revenue, operating spend, net, and how many months of runway the current bankroll covers. "Covered" means revenue meets or exceeds opex, so runway is indefinite.
- Revenue
- $0
- Opex
- +$50
- Net
- −$50
- Runway
- 6 mo.
Top wallets (3)
Top wallets are selected by realized PnL magnitude. Bucket shows that wallet's approximate hypothetical PnL contribution, rounded to the nearest $25 to avoid leaking precise per-wallet sizing — rows do not sum to headline PnL. Share is that bucket as a fraction of headline PnL; it can exceed 100% when a single wallet carried the window while other alerts netted negative. Truncated, opaque IDs, never reversible to a full on-chain address. See the methodology for why.
- Wallet Bucket Share Category
- wallet_83f9 ~−$50 -6% macro-finance
- wallet_0f59 ~−$75 -9% macro-finance
- wallet_5abe ≈$0 0% macro-finance
Strategy track record (2026-07-01 → 2026-07-31)
Generated from ogsfrompoly warehouse for the monthly window 2026-07-01 → 2026-07-31. 612 alerts emitted in this window across the LP-public category (macro-finance). Numbers in the frontmatter are mechanically derived.
Top wallets are ranked by realized PnL magnitude. A wallet-level hypothetical_pnl_usd, when present, is the $100-notional alert-model PnL for that wallet in this same window; it is an annotation, not the ranking key.
Project P&L
Revenue was $0 for 2026-07-01 → 2026-07-31. Operating expenses were $50 (aggregate ledger total; no line-item breakdown was supplied). Net was -$50 — the first month the project runs a burn, as the standing $50/mo polynode charge begins and the copytrading pool has not yet swept realized revenue to the collection wallet. Runway is 6 months: the cash reserve earmarked for opex covers six months of that burn at the current rate. That reserve is an operator ledger figure, distinct from both the $10,000 hypothetical bankroll the strategy track record references and the copytrading pool’s own capital base.
Methodology reminder
See /methodology for the sign-randomization skill test and the disclosure policy. All wallet references on this page are truncated IDs; no on-chain lookup is possible from this page alone.
The hit rate scores the markets that resolved during this period, whenever they were alerted. Statements published before 2026-07-31 scored the alerts emitted in the period instead, so the two series are not comparable and should not be read as one track record.